Monday 21 September 2026
- Thought Leadership
UK Retail Sector Report: September 2026
Summary
- Retail sales volumes have returned to February 2020 levels, but this recovery has been bought with price, with non-food prices flat for the past year despite rising costs.
- Total insolvencies are falling, but administrations – the procedure larger companies enter – are back at their pre-pandemic peak. Distress has moved up the size curve, towards bigger trade creditor balances.
- Brand-and-IP sales out of administration are now the standard outcome. Harvey Nichols’ unsecured creditors face no more than 15 pence in the pound.
- The economy grew 0.4% in July while consumer-facing output fell. Confidence is at a two-year high and hiring has turned, against Brent over $100 and freight rates up two-thirds since May.
- Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% for five consecutive meetings, with three of nine members voting for a rise in July.
- The £135 duty relief on low-value imports stays open until October 2028 at the latest, two years behind the EU and three behind the US.
- Retail employee jobs are at 2.63m, the lowest since 1997; youth unemployment is 16.2%.
- The economy is doing better than the consumer, and the consumer better than our shops.
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